Target: the county share of beds in the site's cost model is $8.55M to $11.46M a year (150 non-congregate beds at $57,000 to $76,400). With a 10% margin the stack must reach $9.41M to $12.61M. Labels: fact = read in the cited primary document. secondhand = press, a third party, or a search extract of a document I could not open. inference = my arithmetic or judgment. Read on 2026-10-11.
Recommended stack
| # | Source | Take a year | One-time or ongoing | What we give up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medi-Cal Transitional Rent and short-term post-hospitalization housing billed on the 150 beds | $1.28M to $1.72M | ongoing | No county line shrinks. Medi-Cal (state and federal) pays room costs for eligible occupants. |
| 2 | HHAP Round 7, Santa Monica's count-based share of the county and Los Angeles CoC allocations | $2.08M | one-time, FY 2027-28 | About 580 of HSH's 24,250 case-management (ICMS) slots for one year, the use HHAP 6 paid for. |
| 3 | County BHSA housing interventions, time-limited and interim settings | $1.46M | ongoing | About 19 to 26 DMH interim bed-years elsewhere in the county. |
| 4 | Measure A Comprehensive Homelessness Services carryover from FY 2026-27 into FY 2027-28 | $2.0M to $3.0M | one-time | $2M to $3M of one-time money HSH would otherwise use to patch FY 2027-28 gaps. |
| 5 | HSH Staffing and Administration line, Measure A | $3.0M to $5.0M | ongoing | About 8 to 14 HSH positions, or the same dollars of services and supplies. |
| Total | $9.82M to $13.26M | Covers $9.41M to $12.61M (inference). |
The year-two problem (inference, moderate). Items 2 and 4 are one-time and total $4.08M to $5.08M. The ongoing items total $5.74M to $8.18M, short of the $8.55M to $11.46M a year D9 needs from FY 2028-29. Closing that gap takes one of three things: a larger cut to item 5, a further HHAP round (none appropriated past Round 7), or Measure A revenue growth that HSH has not projected yet. The petition should say so.
The five lines, one at a time
1. Medi-Cal Transitional Rent and STPHH (rank 1, most defensible).
- Document: DHCS BH-CONNECT Transitional Rent, required of every Medi-Cal managed care plan from 2026-01-01 (fact, NHeLP brief). Up to six months of rent in interim or permanent settings per member. Mandatory only for the behavioral health population until expansion no sooner than 2027-01-01 (fact, same).
- Rates: the motel ceiling is 150% of HUD's Small Area Fair Market Rent for an efficiency, and the daily ceiling is the monthly rate divided by 28 (secondhand, search extract of the DHCS methodology, which blocked direct download). Short-term post-hospitalization housing is $108 a day and recuperative care $204 a day on one plan's 2026 rate sheet (fact for Partnership HealthPlan; L.A. Care and Health Net negotiate rates by provider and do not publish them).
- Take: 15% of the 150 beds' operating cost, about 22 bed-equivalents (inference, low). That matches the share research lane 05 used.
- Gives up: nothing on a county ledger. The operator must contract with L.A. Care or Health Net as a Transitional Rent provider. A combined 182-day cap on room-and-board supports per member per year limits it.
- Who decides: DHCS sets rules; the health plans authorize each member.
2. HHAP Round 7 (rank 2).
- Document: HCD preliminary HHAP 7 allocations. County of Los Angeles $92,163,999.73; Los Angeles City and County CoC $92,688,867.86 (fact, marked preliminary; final figures were due September 2026 and I did not find them).
- Formula: HHAP 7 uses the 2025 count. Santa Monica had 812 of the county's 72,308, or 1.12% (inference: 812 from the plan, 72,308 LAHSA). 1.12% of each allocation is $1.035M plus $1.041M, or $2.08M (inference).
- Santa Monica gets no direct HHAP money (fact, HHAP 6 allocations).
- Gives up: in FY 2026-27 the county put its $72.482M of HHAP 6 into ICMS case management ($68.226M) and youth interim housing ($4.256M) (fact, FY 2026-27 plan). ICMS costs about $3,602 a slot ($87.355M for 24,250 slots, inference). $2.08M is about 580 slots for one year.
- Legal basis: HSC 50241 formula; Round 7 arrives as added Round 6 disbursements under the regional action plan, which must be amended to name the use (secondhand, CSAC). First payment requires compliance with state encampment guidance.
- Who decides: HSH in the FY 2027-28 plan and the Board (county share); the CoC board (CoC share).
3. BHSA housing interventions (rank 3).
- Document: DMH BHSA Integrated Plan budget companion, 2026-04-03. BHSA housing interventions are $270,759,000 in year one (FY 2026-27) and $902,531,000 over three years (fact). All-fund housing interventions are $1,008,713,415 over three years, of which time-limited and interim settings are $447,213,671 (fact, from a garbled table layout, moderate).
- Take: Santa Monica's 0.98% count share of about $149M a year of interim settings is $1.46M (inference).
- Gives up: DMH's interim pool is fixed, so 19 to 26 bed-years at $57,000 to $76,400 move from other areas to Santa Monica (inference).
- Legal basis: Welf. and Inst. Code 5830; occupants must meet BHSA criteria (serious mental illness or substance use disorder). Moderate confidence on the section number.
- Who decides: DMH drafts the annual update; the Board adopts.
4. Measure A carryover (rank 4).
- Document: the adopted plan spends $41,236,000 of projected FY 2025-26 underspend, set at 8% (fact, Board letter, 2026-02-03). The same 8% on $538,815,000 would leave about $43M to carry into FY 2027-28 (inference, low).
- Take $2M to $3M once. Gives up: one-time money HSH would otherwise spend on its own gaps.
- Who decides: HSH and the Board at adoption, 2027-01-26 (fact, HSH FY 2027-28 page).
5. HSH Staffing and Administration (rank 5, the real trade).
- Document: FY 2026-27 plan, Staffing and Administration $98,128,000: programmatic staffing $60,375,000 for 172 FTE and administration $37,753,000 for 103 FTE (fact).
- Take $3M to $5M, 3.1% to 5.1% of the line. At about $357,000 per position ($98.128M for 275 FTE, inference) that is 8 to 14 positions.
- Gives up: HSH headcount in a department that took over LAHSA's contracts on 2026-07-01. Slower contracting and oversight is the cost.
- Legal basis: Comprehensive Homelessness Services is a 60% Measure A share the Board allocates by vote; no ordinance floor on staffing was found (inference).
- Who decides: HSH draft, Board of Supervisors, 3 of 5.
What the county pays for a bed today
- Single-adult interim housing: $143,252,000 for 3,416 beds in FY 2026-27 (fact). That is $41,936 a bed a year, about $115 a night (inference).
- The joint City and County rate from 2025-07-01 is $116 a night at sites of 50 beds or fewer and $89 at larger sites, leasing excluded (secondhand, LA CAO).
- D9's non-congregate cost of $57,000 to $76,400 is 36% to 82% above the county's average single-adult bed (inference).
Measure A Local Solutions Fund (not in the stack)
- FY 2026-27 allocation to Santa Monica: $1,296,779 ($1,190,860 count share, 90%, plus $105,919 survey share, 10%) (fact, LSF guidance). FY 2025-26 was $1,221,616 (fact, LSF table).
- the site's cost model already counts the LSF as its own flow at the FY 2025-26 figure, so adding it to D9 would double count. The model understates it by $75,163.
- Drawn versus left: unknown. LSF pays on reimbursement, and the city's annual report was due 2026-10-01; I did not find it. From 2027-10-01, unspent LSF above 30% in two straight annual reports goes back to the county (fact, LSF guidance).
Rejected, one line each
- Reserving more existing county single-adult beds: the model already counts about 162 county-funded beds in Santa Monica, above its 34-bed count share (inference).
- LACAHSA: barred by state law from funding homeless services; its $114.8M prevention money cannot buy beds (fact, LACAHSA plan).
- Measure H: its $48,390,000 carryover is fully assigned in FY 2026-27 (fact); nothing is left for FY 2027-28 (inference).
- Accountability, Data and Research ($16,468,000): fixed at 1.25% by the ordinance (fact).
- Homelessness Solutions Innovations ($11,010,000): an ordinance floor for innovation; a bed contract would not qualify (inference).
- Skid Row Action Plan ($11,870,000, one-time): the need there is larger than Santa Monica's.
- City/COG Interim Housing ($5,000,000, one-time Measure H): FY 2026-27 only and tied to a 2021 Board motion (fact).
- CoC local jurisdiction line ($5,000,000): one-time transition money for Long Beach, Pasadena and Glendale; Santa Monica is not a CoC (fact).
- Pathway Home ($76,374,000 in FY 2026-27): shrinking by 575 beds through January 2027 (fact); D9 asks to restore it, but it is not a source.
- Recuperative care at $204 a day: needs medical staffing that motel beds lack.
- SB 43: came with no new money (fact, the plan).
- DMH subacute and long-term care ($461,911,000 over three years, all funds, fact): the source for D8's locked beds, not D9.
What I could not establish
- Final HHAP 7 allocations (due September 2026, not found).
- L.A. Care and Health Net contracted rates in Los Angeles, and the Santa Monica efficiency Small Area Fair Market Rent.
- How much of its FY 2025-26 LSF Santa Monica has drawn.
- FY 2027-28 Measure A revenue projection and the draft plan, which was due in October 2026.
- Whether Santa Monica still has a county Pathway Home site. The Board letter of 2026-02-03 lists Santa Monica among seven remaining sites. The city's later explainer says the county will not renew the Palm Motel lease and the city takes it over. These conflict.
- Whether the CalAIM Community Supports renewal after 2026-12-31 keeps short-term post-hospitalization housing.
- the plan dates Board adoption to "about February 2027." HSH's page says 2027-01-26.