The plan

Labels: fact (primary source or two agreeing reports), secondhand (one outlet or one party's claim), inference (reasoning or arithmetic shown here).

1. The answer in 10 lines

The petition asks twelve named officials for twelve specific acts, each with a deadline, a cost and a number that proves it happened.
Santa Monica police already arrest a great deal: arrests involving homeless people rose 52% in 2025 (fact). The failure comes after the arrest.
Cases leak out at five points: a camping law that dropped bedrolls in 2025, automatic diversion, $0 bail cite-and-release, missed court dates at a courthouse 12 miles away, and too few beds of every kind.
The plan closes each leak. City Council restores bedrolls and adopts San Diego's offer-a-bed-then-enforce rule; the City Attorney stops diverting repeat cases; the DA files Prop 36 treatment felonies; the court brings a calendar back to Santa Monica.
The City Manager opens 480 city beds and spaces by June 30, 2028, in three phases, and the county adds 75 treatment and locked beds by Dec 31, 2027: 555 in all, sized to the street count (about 496 officially, about 571 on RAND's adjustment).
The county supplies what the city cannot: Supervisor Horvath moves SB 43 locked beds and treatment slots; HSH Director Sarah Mahin funds Westside interim beds from Measure A.
People with family elsewhere go home through Project Homecoming, only to a verified receiving person, with a public monthly report on who returned.
Removing people from the city by force is unlawful (Edwards, Saenz, In re White) and expensive (Nevada paid San Francisco to settle its patient busing). The lawful version is a citywide conduct ban, a bed offer, verified reunification and post-conviction stay-away orders.
Net new city cost: about $12.9M to $17.9M a year if the county pays nothing, about $4.3M to $6.4M if the county funds the 150 non-congregate beds as asked. The first figure is 2.5% to 3.4% of the $525.2M General Fund (low-to-moderate confidence).
Every peer city where the street count fell after a camping ban (Culver City, downtown San Diego, San Jose, Huntington Beach) opened city-controlled beds at the same time; where enforcement rose without beds (Sacramento, Fresno), counts rose (research inference from Culver City, San Diego and CalMatters data). This plan does both together, so living on the street in Santa Monica stops being an option.

2. Why it persists: the mechanism chain

2.1 Street enforcement is happening

fact. SMPD arrests of people experiencing homelessness rose from 1,622 in 2024 to 2,465 in 2025, up 52%. SMPD 2025 Annual Crime Report; Santa Monica Lookout, 2026-05-13
fact. Total SMPD arrests reached 3,549 year to date on 2026-08-29, against 2,138 at the same point in 2025, up 66%. SMPD Blue Notebook, Aug 23-29, 2026
fact. Homeless-related calls rose from 23,950 (19% of calls) in 2024 to 32,446 (26%) in 2025. Lookout, 2026-05-13

2.2 Leak one: the camping law no longer covers a bedroll, and sleeping is legal

fact. The current text of SMMC 4.08.095, read from the official code dated 2026-07-28, bans tents, huts, cots, beds and hammocks used as living accommodation in public places. It no longer lists sleeping bags or bedrolls. SMMC Chapter 4.08, eCode360
fact. The September 2024 ordinance (Ord. 2789CCS, first vote 4-3) had put sleeping bags and bedrolls into the definition. The code's amendment history for the section ends with Ord. 2804CCS, adopted 2025-03-11. On 2025-01-28 Councilmembers Hall and Snell and then-Mayor Pro Tem Torosis asked the City Attorney for an amendment on "certain comfort items." Council legislative file, 2025-01-28
inference, moderate confidence. Ord. 2804CCS removed bedrolls and sleeping bags after the November 2024 election moved the council from 4-3 to 6-1. The vote on 2804CCS was not found. The city's own Q&A page, dated 2024-09-13, still lists bedrolls and is out of date. City Q&A
fact. "Santa Monica does not prohibit sleeping on public property." City Q&A
fact. The night doorway rule (SMMC 4.08.097, 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. in the commercial corridors) applies only where the entrance is posted with a sign. Sidewalk obstruction (SMMC 3.12.360) is an infraction, so the remedy is a ticket. SMMC 4.08
fact. Living in a vehicle is not banned. Staff recommended on 2026-03-24 holding a vehicle-habitation ordinance until a safe parking site is secured. City release, 2026-03-23 (secondhand on the recommendation)

2.3 Leak two: warn, then divert

fact. Officers warn and offer services before citing. All misdemeanor cases go to the City Attorney, who decides whether to file and often routes people to diversion. City Q&A
fact. Under SaMo Bridge, a person arrested for a low-level offense such as camping who completes a 90-day plan has the case left unfiled. Lookout, 2025-01-03
secondhand. Year one of SaMo Bridge: 462 referrals, 363 started, 54 graduates, about 15% of starters (the percentage is inference). City release, 2026-05-14
secondhand. The city's one-year Realignment report says the City Attorney filing rate rose to 91% from 65-70%. SMDP, Oct 2026 inference: a high filing rate followed by diversion and dismissal on completion still produces few convictions; no conviction or dismissal counts are published.

2.4 Leak three: $0 bail cite-and-release

fact. Since 2023-10-01 the LA Superior Court's Pre-Arraignment Release Protocol puts many non-violent misdemeanors and felonies on cite-and-release or book-and-release at $0 bail. Refusing to leave private property (Penal Code 602(o)) is on the $0 list. The 2026 misdemeanor schedule, effective 2026-01-01, keeps the protocol. LA Superior Court protocol; 2026 misdemeanor bail schedule
inference. The protocol belongs to the Superior Court, so the zero-bail demand goes to the court, not the Board of Supervisors.

2.5 Leak four: the court date is 120 days out and 12 miles away

fact. The Santa Monica Courthouse no longer hears criminal cases; Santa Monica misdemeanors go to the Airport Courthouse at 11701 S. La Cienega Blvd. Airport Courthouse summary
secondhand. Jenna Grigsby, the City Attorney's criminal chief, says bench warrants rose for camping, park-after-dark and trespass cases after court dates were pushed from 21 to 120 days, and the courthouse is 12 miles away. SMDP

2.6 Leak five: beds of every kind are short

fact. The 2026 count found 718 homeless people in Santa Monica: 222 sheltered, 389 people counted outdoors, 59 occupied vehicles and 48 tents or makeshift shelters. City release, 2026-07-24
fact. SaMoShel, the city's 60-bed shelter, is slated for replacement. On 2026-07-28 the council approved a city-run Housing Focused System of Care: the 34-room Palm Motel and 35 beds at the Salvation Army Bell Shelter in the City of Bell. City release, 2026-08-04; SMDP
secondhand. A 6-0 motion by Councilmember Raskin delayed SaMoShel's closure until replacement non-congregate sites are found; Councilmember Negrete's motion to close it at once died without a second. Lookout, 2026-08-04
fact. LA County flagged before SB 43 took effect that it had no locked treatment capacity for people with severe substance use disorder and that the law came with no new money. LA County began SB 43 on 2026-01-01. County board material; DMH SB 43 page
secondhand. DA Hochman: "We do not have anywhere close to enough drug treatment and mental illness beds." Only 22% of people charged with treatment-mandated felonies in LA County had entered treatment by Q1 2026. LAist; Vera Institute Q1 2026
fact. The county's FY 2026-27 Measure A plan closed a $303.6M deficit by cutting $92M in new Pathway Home encampment funding and $105M in other services. HSH board letter, 2026-02-03
fact, and the legal reason beds matter. Under In re Eichorn (1998), a homeless defendant charged with sleeping in public may raise a necessity defense when every shelter bed was full. Grants Pass did not touch this state-law defense. In re Eichorn; Grants Pass opinion

2.7 The count itself is noisy

secondhand. Count volunteers fell from 250-300 to about 100 when LAHSA took over in 2024. RAND found LAHSA's 2025 count 32% below RAND's own counts in Hollywood, Venice and Skid Row. Lookout, 2026-07-27; Lookout, 2025-07-09
secondhand. RAND's preliminary 2026 Santa Monica total is 793, counting 1.7 people per dwelling, and RAND describes the city's population as stable at about 800 to 1,000 since 2017, concentrated in one downtown tract. SMDP on RAND
inference. The city's 18.7% unsheltered drop sits inside the noise of a 60% volunteer cut, so the plan measures success with RAND's counts and monthly bed data.

3. The demands

Twelve demands, each to one official or body. Names come from research file 02; "officeholder" marks a seat whose current name was not verified.

D1. Restore bedrolls and adopt the offer-a-bed-then-enforce rule

To: Santa Monica City Council.
Action: Amend SMMC 4.08.095 to put sleeping bags, bedrolls and bedding used as living accommodation back into "camp facility." Ban camping at all times near schools, parks, transit stops, shelters and the Pier; everywhere else, enforce once the officer documents an available bed offered and refused (San Diego's structure). Codify 48 hours' notice and 60-day property storage.
Authority: City police power. Grants Pass v. Johnson (2024) and Tobe v. Santa Ana (1995) uphold camping bans. The logged bed offer defeats an Eichorn defense; storage satisfies Garcia. Notice and storage track Executive Order N-1-24 and the 2025 state model ordinance, which AB 179 ties to HHAP Round 7 money. Model and its limits: San Diego audit, 2026.
Vote: Council majority of 7, two readings.
Deadline: a councilmember discussion item (a ‘16-item’) on Dec 8, 2026 directing the City Attorney to draft; first reading by Jan 26, 2027; second reading by Feb 23, 2027 (2027 dates assume the second-and-fourth-Tuesday schedule).
Cost and funds: Staff time. Storage cost unknown.
Result: In force by March 25, 2027; offers, acceptances and citations under the new text reported monthly from April 2027.

D2. Close the doorway and vehicle gaps

To: Santa Monica City Council.
Action: Drop the posted-sign condition from the 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. doorway rule (SMMC 4.08.097) in the listed corridors. Adopt the drafted vehicle-habitation ordinance, effective the day the first city safe parking site opens.
Authority: City police power. Desertrain (9th Cir. 2014) struck a vague vehicle ban, so the text must define the conduct exactly. SB 692 (2026, signed) concerns vehicles and homelessness and was not read; the City Attorney must clear it.
Vote: Council majority, two readings.
Deadline: Doorway change on the D1 calendar; vehicle ordinance adopted by June 30, 2027.
Cost and funds: Staff time; safe parking is in D5.
Result: Sign condition gone by March 2027; the 59 occupied vehicles counted in 2026 placed in safe parking or housing by the January 2028 count.

D3. Publish results monthly and tie the emergency to a bed count

To: Santa Monica City Council.
Action: Adopt a reporting ordinance: a public monthly report of nightly open beds by type, offers made and refused, citations, City Attorney filings, diversions, dismissals, bench warrants, reunifications with 30- and 90-day follow-up, and spending per placement. Write the D5 bed targets into the next extension of the local homelessness emergency, which now runs through Dec 31, 2026.
Authority: Council legislative power. A reporting mandate is legislative, so it is also a lawful initiative subject.
Vote: Council majority.
Deadline: Targets in the December 2026 extension; ordinance adopted by Feb 23, 2027.
Cost and funds: Staff time inside the city's General Fund HMIS. Not quantified.
Result: First report April 2027; twelve reports by April 2028.

D4. End automatic diversion for repeat cases

To: City Attorney Heidi von Tongeln.
Action: Publish a filing policy: a first quality-of-life offense keeps the SaMo Bridge or STEP Court offer; a third arrest for camping, park-after-dark, trespass or drug use within 12 months is filed, with diversion only as a plea condition. Refer every case that qualifies under Health and Safety Code 11395 to the DA. Seek place-specific stay-away conditions for repeat camping under SMMC 4.08.093. Publish filings, diversions, dismissals and convictions monthly.
Authority: The City Attorney files misdemeanors and sets diversion policy (office page). SMMC 4.08.093 authorizes stay-away orders; People v. Moran permits crime-tied conditions; In re White forbids whole-area banishment.
Vote: None. Acts alone.
Deadline: Policy published by Jan 15, 2027.
Cost and funds: Criminal Prosecution Unit budget; added workload unknown because no filing data is published.
Result: Monthly data from February 2027; every third-arrest case filed from that date.

D5. Open 480 city beds and spaces matched to the street count

To: City Manager Oliver Chi.
Action: Bring council a capacity plan that opens 60 safe parking spaces and 150 managed safe-sleeping spaces by June 30, 2027; 120 congregate beds and 75 non-congregate beds (motel or tiny home) by Dec 31, 2027; 75 more non-congregate beds by June 30, 2028. Site inside and outside the city, as the Bell Shelter contract already does. Keep SaMoShel's 60 beds until replacements open, per the council's 6-0 motion.
Authority: The City Manager sites, contracts under threshold and directs staff alone.
Vote: Council majority for appropriations at the Feb-Mar 2027 mid-year update and the June 2027 biennial budget.
Deadline: Plan to council by Feb 23, 2027.
Cost and funds: $14.1M to $19.1M a year gross (Section 4): county Measure A beds (D9), Local Solutions Fund, Measure CS, state Encampment Resolution Fund, General Fund.
Result: 210 spaces by June 30, 2027; 405 by Dec 31, 2027; 480 by June 30, 2028, plus 75 county beds from D8. Target: RAND-adjusted unsheltered under 285, half of about 571, in the January 2028 count; under 100 in January 2029 (low confidence).

D6. Staff the Homeless Liaison Program and serve the warrants

To: Police Chief Darrick Jacob.
Action: Publish the HLP headcount (city pages say 6 and 9 officers). Staff HLP seven days a week on two shifts. Log a bed offer from the nightly list at every enforcement contact. Serve camping, park and trespass bench warrants within 30 days.
Authority: The chief deploys officers under the City Manager.
Vote: None for deployment; council for new positions.
Deadline: Headcount and offer logs by Jan 1, 2027; two shifts by July 1, 2027.
Cost and funds: HLP cost unverified. Realignment added 10 over-hire positions; Measure CS funded earlier expansion.
Result: Offer, acceptance and warrant numbers in every monthly report from April 2027.

D7. Run reunification to a verified-receiver standard and report it

To: Housing and Human Services Director Aileen Reynolds.
Action: Put Project Homecoming on written rules: travel only to a named receiver confirmed by phone; no return bans; follow-up at 30 and 90 days; a monthly report of trips, destinations, arrivals and returns. Coordinate with the private Santa Monica Coalition program.
Authority: Department program under the City Manager. The verified-receiver rule is the standard Nevada accepted when it paid San Francisco $400,000 in 2015 over patient busing.
Vote: None.
Deadline: Rules by Jan 31, 2027.
Cost and funds: About $98,000 for 200 trips at San Francisco's $492 average (inference); staff cost unknown.
Result: 200 verified reunifications in FY 2027-28, up from 107 in FY 2025-26, with the return rate published (San Francisco's is about 18%).

D8. Fund locked beds for SB 43 and treatment slots for the Westside

To: Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, LA County Third District.
Action: Move a Board motion directing the Department of Mental Health to contract 25 locked subacute beds for Westside referrals by Dec 31, 2027; directing Substance Abuse Prevention and Control to reserve 50 residential slots for Santa Monica referrals at the CLARE|MATRIX Pico campus as its 75 new beds open; and setting a CARE Court referral path for Santa Monica Fire's Community Response Unit and SMPD.
Authority: The Board directs county departments. SB 43 is live in LA County since 2026-01-01; DMH projects a countywide need of 250 subacute beds (county status report).
Vote: 3 of 5 supervisors (Horvath, Solis, Mitchell, Hahn, Barger).
Deadline: Motion by Jan 31, 2027.
Cost and funds: County Prop 1 Behavioral Health Services Act funds and Medi-Cal; capital already awarded ($51.1M to CLARE|MATRIX). Locked-bed cost unverified.
Result: 25 locked beds and 50 slots in use by Dec 31, 2027, reported quarterly.

D9. Put Westside interim beds and Pathway Home back in the Measure A plan

To: Sarah Mahin, Director, LA County Department of Homeless Services and Housing (HSH).
Action: In the FY 2027-28 Measure A plan, fund 150 non-congregate interim beds for Santa Monica referrals, restore Pathway Home encampment resolution in the city, and pass a share of HHAP Round 7 to Santa Monica, which gets no direct HHAP allocation.
Authority: HSH drafts the plan (FY 2027-28 page).
Vote: Board of Supervisors, 3 of 5, at adoption, about February 2027 (inference from the prior cycle).
Deadline: Comment form closes Nov 20, 2026.
Cost and funds: $8.55M to $11.46M a year from the Measure A interim housing line ($277.5M in FY 2026-27) and HHAP Round 7.
Result: Line item in the adopted plan; beds open by Dec 31, 2027.

D10. File Prop 36 treatment felonies on every eligible Santa Monica arrest

To: District Attorney Nathan Hochman.
Action: File HSC 11395 treatment-mandated felonies on every eligible Santa Monica case, ask for treatment as the release condition, seek warrants on failures to appear, and publish Santa Monica numbers quarterly.
Authority: The DA files felonies arising in Santa Monica. His memo GOM 25-002 applies Prop 36 with no washout period for priors.
Vote: None.
Deadline: Written confirmation by Jan 1, 2027.
Cost and funds: DA budget; treatment slots from D8.
Result: Quarterly reports from April 2027; treatment entry above the countywide 22% by the end of 2027.

D11. Bring court back to Santa Monica and stop the failure-to-appear loop

To: Presiding Judge Sergio C. Tapia II, Superior Court of Los Angeles County, and his successor from Jan 1, 2027 (fact: lacourt.org, 2025-26 term).
Action: Hold STEP Court in Santa Monica weekly instead of monthly; set citation court dates no more than 21 days out; book for magistrate review, instead of citing out, a person with two or more failures to appear in 12 months.
Authority: The court sets its calendars and its pre-arraignment release protocol.
Vote: None outside the court.
Deadline: July 1, 2027.
Cost and funds: Court budget; STEP Court is grant-funded (DOJ, State Bar, HOME-ARP).
Result: Camping, park and trespass bench warrants down by half by the end of 2027.

D12. Fund the beds the state mandated

To: Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur, Assembly District 51 (ask the Senate District 24 winner, John Erickson or Brian Goldsmith, to co-author).
Action: Carry a 2027 budget request for SB 43 locked substance-use beds and for Prop 36 treatment (state gave $110M; supporters say $400M a year is needed). File a Joint Legislative Audit Committee request to audit SB 43 and Prop 36 implementation in LA County.
Authority: Legislators author budget requests; only a legislator can request a JLAC audit.
Vote: Legislature majority for the budget; JLAC for the audit.
Deadline: Audit request by March 31, 2027; budget request before the May 2027 revision.
Cost and funds: State General Fund; supporters' claimed gap is $290M a year (inference).
Result: Line in the June 2027 state budget; audit approved in 2027.

4. Budget

4.1 What is spent now on homelessness touching Santa Monica

Line	Amount	Year	Confidence	Source
City, all homelessness programs (last full accounting, Moss Adams)	$42.5M a year	about FY 2021-22	moderate (four years old)	Lookout 2022
Measure GS appropriations (renter aid, prevention, housing services)	$16.9M	FY 2026-27	moderate	Santa Monica Next
Measure GS unspent balance in the housing fund	$49.3M	as of Feb 2, 2026	moderate	Lookout Feb 2026
Human Services Grants Program	about $11.2M	FY 2026-27 (end of cycle)	moderate	City release
Housing Focused System of Care (Palm Motel 34 rooms, Bell Shelter 35 beds)	$4.26M, then $5.27M a year	FY 2026-27 on	moderate	SMDP
SaMoShel operations (60 beds)	about $2M a year	2026	low	Yo! Venice
Measure CS hotel tax (HLP expansion, outreach, cleanup)	$4.1M to $5M a year total	since FY 2023	moderate (split by program unverified)	Measure CS
HUD Continuum of Care, Santa Monica Housing Authority	$5.64M	FY 2024 award	high	HUD CA-600
Measure A Local Solutions Fund to Santa Monica	$1.22M	FY 2025-26	high	County LSF table
County HSH Measure A plan, countywide	$843.3M	FY 2026-27	high	HSH board letter
Prop 1 bond, CLARE	MATRIX Pico campus (15 detox, 75 new residential beds)	$51.1M one-time	2025 award	high
Downtown Santa Monica Inc. ambassadors	about $5.4M a year	2024 claim	low	SMDP

inference. A floor of known FY 2026-27 lines touching the city is about $39.8M (GS $16.9M, HSGP $11.2M, system of care $4.26M, CoC $5.64M, Local Solutions Fund $1.22M, federal CDBG and HOME homeless lines $0.57M), before police, cleanup and fire costs. The city has published no full FY 2025-26 or FY 2026-27 homelessness total; that is a records request in Section 6.

4.2 What the plan costs, bed by bed

Sizing. People counted outdoors were 389 in 2026 and 475 in 2025 (fact). Adding dwellings at one person each gives 496 unsheltered in 2026 and 610 in 2025 (inference: 718 minus 222; 812 minus 202). RAND's 1.7 people per dwelling gives about 571 in 2026 (inference: 389 plus 107 times 1.7, which matches RAND's 793 minus 222 sheltered). The plan sizes to 555 new spaces (480 city and 75 county) plus about 200 reunifications a year.

Bed type	Count	Cost per bed per year	Basis	Annual city cost	Confidence
Safe parking spaces	60	$10,500 (placeholder)	No safe parking cost in research; San Diego safe-sleeping rate used	$0.63M	low
Managed safe-sleeping spaces	150	$9,000 to $10,500	San Diego: $4.2M for 400 tents, $7M for 776 (Times of San Diego)	$1.35M to $1.58M	moderate
Congregate shelter beds	120	$29,000 to $44,615	LA city audit, at full and at 65% occupancy (Center Square)	$3.48M to $5.35M	moderate
Non-congregate interim (motel, tiny home)	150	$57,000 to $76,393	LA tiny home and hotel rate; Santa Monica's own system of care ongoing rate ($5,271,136 for 69 beds)	$8.55M to $11.46M	moderate
Residential drug treatment slots	50	county and Medi-Cal	CLARE	MATRIX expansion	$0 to city
Locked subacute beds (SB 43, LPS)	25	unverified	DMH countywide need of 250	$0 to city	unknown
Reunification trips	200 a year	$492 a trip	San Francisco 2024 average	$0.10M	moderate
Total	555 spaces (480 city and 75 county) + 200 trips			$14.1M to $19.1M	low-to-moderate

Capital is extra: if 100 non-congregate beds are tiny homes at the 2022 LA average of $42,344 a bed, the build is about $4.2M (inference); the city's pending Encampment Resolution Fund application exceeds $5M.

Per space, the plan costs about $25,400 to $34,400 a year (inference: gross divided by 555). For comparison, LA supportive housing under Prop HHH averaged $596,486 per unit to build (2022 Controller), so near-term shelter capacity moves the street count faster than permanent units can.

4.3 Where the money comes from

Source	What it can pay for	Amount available	Confidence
County Measure A interim housing line (D9)	The 150 non-congregate beds	Line was $277.5M countywide in FY 2026-27; the plan asks for $8.55M to $11.46M	moderate on the line, low on winning the ask
Measure A Local Solutions Fund	Any city homelessness use	$1.22M a year	high
State Encampment Resolution Fund	Site capital, first-year operations	More than $5M applied for in July 2026, award unknown	low
HHAP Round 7 through the county	Interim beds, operations	Santa Monica gets no direct allocation; county share decides	low
Measure CS (general hotel tax)	Any purpose the council chooses; recommended for public safety and homelessness	$4.1M to $5M a year, already committed to HLP, outreach and cleanup	moderate
Measure GS housing fund	Rental subsidies for exits from interim beds to permanent housing	$49.3M balance in Feb 2026 less $16.9M FY 2026-27 appropriations, about $32.4M (inference)	moderate; whether GS may pay for shelter operations is unverified
Prop 1 Behavioral Health Services Act (county)	30% of county funds go to housing interventions, half of that for chronically homeless people (Prop 1 Q&A)	County decides	moderate
Medi-Cal CalAIM Community Supports (L.A. Care)	Housing navigation, deposits, tenancy support for exits	About $222M countywide through 2029; waiver expires Dec 31, 2026 (L.A. Care)	moderate
Realignment Plan results	General Fund	$28.8M new revenue and savings against a $24M target in year one, while a $4.3M General Fund deficit remained (SMDP)	moderate

4.4 Net cost per year

County pays nothing: $14.1M to $19.1M gross, less the $1.22M Local Solutions Fund, is $12.9M to $17.9M a year of new city money (inference, low-to-moderate confidence). That is 2.5% to 3.4% of the $525.2M FY 2026-27 General Fund.
County funds the 150 non-congregate beds as D9 asks: $4.3M to $6.4M a year of new city money.
One-time capital: about $4M to $5M, the size of the pending state application.
Not counted: avoided costs, such as county jail at about $214 a day per person (inference from the Sheriff's jail budget), and homeless-related calls are 26% of SMPD's call load.

5. Politics

5.1 Who must vote, and how they lean now

City Council (4 of 7 to pass). The 2024 election made the majority 6-1 (fact, Lookout). Councilmember Lana Negrete is the lone dissenter (fact, Lookout).
- Mayor Caroline Torosis: co-requested the 2025 "comfort items" amendment (fact). Said in 2024, "We need to help people with rehabilitation measures, not punitive measures," and in 2026, "This is what it looks like to take responsibility for both our neighbors and our neighborhoods at the same time" (secondhand, Santa Monica Next). On the Nov 3 ballot.
- Councilmembers Dan Hall and Barry Snell: co-requested the comfort-items amendment (fact). Hardest votes on D1 (inference).
- Councilmember Ellis Raskin: wrote the 6-0 motion keeping SaMoShel open until replacement sites exist; voiced "some hesitation about moving away from an Access Center style model" (secondhand, SMDP). His stated condition is capacity first, which D5 supplies (inference).
- Councilmember Natalya Zernitskaya: no recorded statement on enforcement in the research; not among the comfort-items requesters (inference: persuadable, low confidence).
- Mayor Pro Tem Jesse Zwick: co-authored the capacity-first SaMoShel item with Torosis and Raskin (secondhand, Lookout). Not running; leaves when the new council is seated.
- Councilmember Lana Negrete: voted for the 2024 bedroll tightening and moved to close SaMoShel at once and site beds outside the city (secondhand, SMDP). On the Nov 3 ballot.
Board of Supervisors (5 votes, 3 to pass): Horvath, Solis, Mitchell, Hahn, Barger. Horvath won re-election outright on June 2, 2026 with 66.35% (fact, LA County results), authored the county's 2023 homelessness emergency and led creation of HSH (secondhand). The other four supervisors' positions on these asks were not researched.
Legislature: AD-51 Rick Chavez Zbur (54.1% in the primary) faces Colin Hernandez on Nov 3. SD-24 is open: Brian Goldsmith, endorsed by the Santa Monica Democratic Club, backed more temporary shelter and enforcing camping bans once shelter exists; John Erickson cited his West Hollywood behavioral-health program (fact, SM Chamber debate summary; AD-51 results).
Voters: Santa Monica voted 54.2% yes on Prop 36 (25,722 to 21,739) on the same ballot that elected the 2024 majority (fact for counts, inference for percent, Lookout). inference: a majority here backs tougher drug law while electing services-first councils, so the petition frames enforcement as treatment and outcomes.

5.2 Election timing

fact. Nov 3, 2026: three at-large seats (Torosis, Negrete, Zwick's open seat). Ballots mailed Oct 1; the registration deadline for a mailed ballot is Oct 19. Eleven candidates qualified: Torosis, Brett Morrow, Danny Ivanov (one slate); Negrete, Ashley Oelsen, Doug Trussler (another); Phil Brock, Ericka Lesley, Eli Gill, Wade Kelley, Derrick Townsend. City election page; Lookout
The new council's seating date is unverified; installation is usually in December.

5.3 The three council members to win first

Ellis Raskin. His own motion made replacement capacity the condition for change. D5 meets it with a dated bed count, so a yes is consistent with his record.
Natalya Zernitskaya. No recorded opposition, not a comfort-items requester, and not on the 2026 ballot, so she can vote on the merits without slate pressure (inference, low confidence).
The winner of Zwick's open seat. Every candidate gets a yes-or-no pledge before Nov 3, so the winner arrives on the record.

With Negrete as the 16-item sponsor, those three make four. If Negrete loses her seat, the sponsor ask goes to Raskin.

5.4 Allies and opponents

Who	Strongest argument	Factual answer
ACLU of Southern California	"Punishing people for being poor" does not solve housing; Grants Pass left state and disability protections intact	Correct that enforcement alone does not cut totals (San Diego auditor, Sacramento, Fresno). The plan ties every enforcement step to a documented, available bed, which meets Eichorn and the disability concern on the facts.
The People Concern	"Firmly stands against the criminalization"	It runs SaMoShel and the Palm Motel; the plan funds more of what it operates. NYC keeps about 3.5% of its homeless population unsheltered through shelter capacity.
Advocates and RAND	Enforcement pushes people to Venice	RAND supports this. Hence beds first, county coordination and RAND counts.
Criminal justice reform groups	Prop 36 treatment does not work	Partly correct: 17% chose treatment statewide; SaMo Bridge graduated 54 of 363. The plan demands funded treatment slots and published outcomes instead of dropping enforcement.
Council majority	Unsheltered already fell 18.7%	RAND puts Santa Monica at a stable 800 to 1,000 since 2017. Targets lock in any real gain.
Pico Neighborhood Association, Friends of Sunset Park	Do not concentrate services on the south side	D5 sites beds inside and outside the city, as the Bell contract already does, and publishes locations.

Allies: Santa Monica Coalition (John Alle) on reunification; police and firefighter unions (endorsed Brock, de la Torre, Lesley and Roknian in 2024); SD-24 candidate Goldsmith's stated position; Residocracy organizers (about 13,500 signatures in 28 days in 2014).

5.5 Media plan

Outlets: Santa Monica Daily Press, Santa Monica Lookout, SM Mirror, Santa Monica Next (pro-majority; pitch the capacity side), Santa Monica Observer, Westside Current, the Argonaut, Yo! Venice, Patch Santa Monica.
Channels: Nextdoor Santa Monica, a weekly chart of verified signatures by neighborhood, and the D3 monthly report.

6. The campaign plan

Phase 1: online petition, now to Dec 7, 2026

Launch the petition with self-reported ZIP and neighborhood; show self-identified residents separately.
Send all eleven council candidates and both AD-51 and SD-24 candidate pairs the twelve demands as a yes-or-no pledge; publish answers before Nov 3.
File the HSH Measure A comment before Nov 20, 2026 (D9).
File Public Records Act requests for: Ord. 2804CCS text and vote; camping citations, City Attorney filings, diversions, dismissals and bench warrants by section for 2024-2026; current HLP headcount; the adopted FY 2026-27 homelessness lines.

Phase 2: delivery at council, Dec 8, 2026

Ask Councilmember Negrete (or Raskin) to submit a 16-item for Dec 8; the deadline is noon Monday, Nov 30, eight days before (Council Rules; meeting calendar).
Deliver the packet as a written communication to the City Clerk and council.mailbox@santamonica.gov (contact page), and in person: counts of self-identified residents by neighborhood, each signer's name with ZIP or neighborhood, and comments. Emails are never delivered.
Use the emergency extension, which must pass before Dec 31, to attach the D5 bed targets (D3).
Each speaker takes one demand within the 2-minute limit.

Phase 3: budget cycle, February to June 2027

Mid-year budget (February to March 2027): D5 capacity plan and first appropriation.
Board of Supervisors adopts the FY 2027-28 Measure A plan (about February 2027); Horvath motion (D8) by Jan 31, 2027.
FY 2027-29 biennial budget: study session about late May 2027, adoption late June 2027.

Phase 4: initiative threat if the council stalls

Trigger: D1 to D3 not adopted by March 31, 2027.
Content: a legislative ordinance only: the camping text in D1, the doorway rule in D2, the reporting mandate in D3. An initiative cannot assign staff, pick a contractor or order arrests.
Threshold: 10% of 69,840 registered voters (LA County report of registration, May 2026) is 6,984 valid signatures (Elections Code 9215; the number is inference, and the count in effect on the publication date governs). Plan 11,000 to 12,000 raw at about 70% validity.
Window: 180 days from the title and summary (City Clerk process). Notice of intent in April 2027, circulate May to October 2027, verification about November 2027.
Cost: $150,000 to $250,000 with paid gatherers (2026 signature prices), or volunteers plus $5,000 to $25,000 in legal drafting (estimate). Filing fee up to $200.
Outcome: the council adopts it as written, orders a 30-day report, or places it on the ballot. The next regular election is Nov 7, 2028; a standalone special cost about $200,000 in 2014 (staff report), which gives the council a reason to adopt. Precedent: in 2014 Residocracy gathered about 13,500 signatures in 28 days and the council repealed the Hines project instead of holding an election.
Warning from Austin: voters passed a camping ban in 2021 by 57.7% (Ballotpedia) and a year later no arrests had been made (KVUE). The initiative must carry the reporting mandate.

County and state deadlines running in parallel

Date	What
Oct 19, 2026	Registration deadline for a mailed ballot
Nov 3, 2026	Council, AD-51, SD-24 elections; Measure TT (hotel tax in major event periods)
Nov 20, 2026	HSH Measure A FY 2027-28 comment form closes
Dec 7, 2026	Senator Ben Allen's term ends
Dec 31, 2026	Local homelessness emergency expires; CalAIM waiver expires
Jan 2027	Governor's budget (new governor)
About Feb 2027	Board adopts FY 2027-28 Measure A plan
May 2027	First DHCS report expected to cover SB 43 outcomes for 2026 (inference)
June 2027	City biennial budget adoption

What Greg does first, this week

Launch the petition and the candidate pledge. Approve the petition page and send the twelve-question pledge to all eleven council candidates before more ballots come back.
File the records requests with the City Clerk for Ord. 2804CCS and its vote, camping and failure-to-appear data, the City Attorney's filing outcomes, and the HLP headcount. These answers settle the biggest open facts.
Ask Councilmember Negrete to sponsor the Dec 8 16-item, with Raskin as the fallback, and put the request in writing before the Nov 30 noon deadline.

7. The strongest case against the plan, and the response

Enforcement moves people; it does not end homelessness. San Diego's own auditor found citywide unsheltered homelessness did not fall after its ordinance and much of the downtown drop moved to safe sleeping sites and other areas. RAND's LA study found that for every four tents removed, about three vehicles or rough sleepers appeared. Response: true of enforcement alone. Every city where the count fell opened capacity at the same time, and this plan counts success by RAND's numbers, which capture rough sleepers. Movement into a managed safe-sleeping site is the intended first step.
Santa Monica cannot afford it. The city has a structural deficit, drew $26.7M of reserves last year, and the Measure GS money may not pay for shelter operations. Response: the county half of the plan (D8, D9) carries most of the cost; if the county refuses, the net city cost is up to $17.9M, about 3.4% of the General Fund and below the $42.5M the city already spent in 2022 with "no data to gauge progress."
Litigation risk. Courts enjoined Vallejo and ruled against Berkeley on state-created-danger and disability grounds, and Eichorn survives. Response: the plan conditions enforcement away from sensitive sites on an available bed, stores property, and keeps the record of each offer, which is the defense in each of those cases.
Treatment is not there. Statewide only 17% of Prop 36 defendants chose treatment, LA County does not track referrals, and San Francisco used SB 43 for 186 temporary conservatorships with none on drug use alone and had no locked substance-use beds. Response: this is why D8 and D12 put money into the locked and residential beds; without them the felony filings fill jail, which cost about $76M countywide in 2025.
The count already fell, so the petition is redundant. Response: the fall sits inside count noise, and the city is the first to say the regional system is being "reordered and defunded" (Director Reynolds). Targets protect the gains.
Reunification sends people back. San Francisco's return rate is about 18%. Response: the plan uses it only where a verified receiver exists and publishes the return rate.