Evidence
Every number on this site, the budget behind the plan, and what other cities did. Each line links to its source. Labels say whether a claim is a fact, secondhand or an inference.
Numbers
| What | Value | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homeless people counted, 2026 | 718 | 222 sheltered; official count, January 2026 | santamonica.gov |
| People counted outdoors, 2026 | 389 | Plus 59 occupied vehicles and 48 tents or makeshift shelters; 475 outdoors in 2025 | santamonica.gov |
| RAND's adjusted 2026 total | 793 | Counts 1.7 people per vehicle or tent; preliminary, secondhand | smdp.com |
| Arrests involving homeless people, 2025 | 2,465 | Up 52% from 1,622 in 2024 | santamonica.gov |
| SaMo Bridge graduates, year one | 54 of 363 | 462 referrals; about 15% of starters graduated (inference) | santamonica.gov |
| Court date delay | 120 days | Up from 21 days; courthouse 12 miles away (secondhand, City Attorney's criminal chief) | smdp.com |
| Prop 36 defendants in treatment, LA County | 22% | Q1 2026, secondhand (Vera Institute) | vera-institute.files.svdcdn.com |
| Santa Monica yes vote on Prop 36 | 54.2% | 25,722 yes, 21,739 no; percent is computed | surfsantamonica.com |
| New beds and spaces the plan opens: 480 city and 75 county | 555 | 480 city beds and spaces phased to June 30, 2028, and 75 county treatment and locked beds by Dec 31, 2027, plus 200 verified reunifications a year; derived in the plan, section 4 | The plan, section 4 |
| Net new city cost | $4.3M to $17.9M a year | Low end if the county funds 150 beds; high end if it funds nothing; low-to-moderate confidence. Net subtracts the $1.22M Measure A Local Solutions Fund already flowing to the city. Derived in the plan, section 4.4 from research/02 line 218 and research/03 line 110 | The plan, section 4.4 |
| Valid signatures to force a ballot initiative | 6,984 | 10% of 69,840 registered voters (May 2026 report); the count in force at filing governs | content.lavote.gov |
Why it persists
Police are arresting more than ever fact
Arrests involving homeless people rose from 1,622 in 2024 to 2,465 in 2025, up 52%. Total arrests in 2026 were up 66% year to date at the end of August.
The camping law dropped bedrolls in 2025, and sleeping is legal fact
The current code no longer lists sleeping bags or bedrolls as camping. The city states it does not prohibit sleeping on public property. Which 2025 ordinance removed the bedding, and the vote on it, is not confirmed.
Most cases go to diversion secondhand
Officers warn first. The City Attorney decides whether to file and often routes people to SaMo Bridge, where finishing a 90-day plan means the case is never filed. Year one: 462 referrals, 363 starts, 54 graduates.
Many arrests end in $0 bail cite-and-release fact
Since October 2023 the LA Superior Court's release protocol puts many non-violent offenses on cite-and-release at $0 bail. The 2026 schedule keeps it.
Court is 12 miles away and up to 120 days out secondhand
Santa Monica misdemeanors go to the Airport Courthouse. The City Attorney's criminal chief says bench warrants rose after court dates moved from 21 to 120 days.
Beds of every kind are short fact
The 2026 count found 222 people sheltered and 389 outdoors, plus 59 occupied vehicles and 48 tents. The county said it had no locked treatment beds for SB 43. The DA says the county lacks treatment and mental illness beds. Without an open bed, a defendant can raise a necessity defense under In re Eichorn.
The count is too noisy to prove progress secondhand
Count volunteers fell from 250-300 to about 100 when LAHSA took over in 2024. RAND puts Santa Monica's 2026 total at 793 against the official 718, and calls the population stable since 2017.
Budget
Spent now
| Item | Amount | Fiscal year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| City homelessness spending, all programs (last full audit) | $42.5M a year | about FY 2021-22 | surfsantamonica.com |
| Measure GS appropriations: renter aid, prevention, housing services | $16.9M | FY 2026-27 | santamonicanext.org |
| Measure GS unspent housing fund balance | $49.3M | as of Feb 2, 2026 | surfsantamonica.com |
| Human Services Grants Program | about $11.2M | FY 2026-27 | santamonica.gov |
| Housing Focused System of Care: Palm Motel 34 rooms, Bell Shelter 35 beds | $4.26M (then $5.27M a year) | FY 2026-27 | smdp.com |
| SaMoShel operations, 60 beds | about $2M a year | 2026 | yovenice.com |
| Measure CS hotel tax, public safety and homelessness | $4.1M to $5M a year | since FY 2023 | santamonica.gov |
| HUD Continuum of Care, Santa Monica Housing Authority | $5.64M | FY 2024 award | files.hudexchange.info |
| Measure A Local Solutions Fund to Santa Monica | $1.22M | FY 2025-26 | file.lacounty.gov |
| LA County HSH Measure A plan, countywide | $843.3M | FY 2026-27 | file.lacounty.gov |
| Prop 1 bond award, CLARE|MATRIX Pico campus | $51.1M one-time | 2025 | clarematrix.org |
What the plan adds
| Item | Amount | Paid from | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 safe parking spaces at $10,500 (placeholder rate) | $0.63M a year | General Fund, Local Solutions Fund | low |
| 150 managed safe-sleeping spaces at $9,000 to $10,500 | $1.35M to $1.58M a year | General Fund, Measure CS, state Encampment Resolution Fund | moderate |
| 120 congregate shelter beds at $29,000 to $44,615 | $3.48M to $5.35M a year | General Fund, HHAP Round 7 through the county | moderate |
| 150 non-congregate interim beds at $57,000 to $76,393 | $8.55M to $11.46M a year | County Measure A (asked in demand 9), else General Fund | moderate |
| 50 residential treatment slots | $0 to the city | County and Medi-Cal | low |
| 25 locked subacute beds | $0 to the city; county cost unverified | County DMH, Prop 1 Behavioral Health Services Act | low |
| 200 verified reunification trips at $492 | $0.10M a year | General Fund | moderate |
| Site capital, 100 tiny homes at $42,344 (if used) | about $4.2M one-time | State Encampment Resolution Fund application (more than $5M pending) | low |
Net
$14.1M to $19.1M a year gross.
Net new city money: $12.9M to $17.9M a year if the county pays nothing (2.5% to 3.4% of the $525.2M General Fund), or $4.3M to $6.4M if the county funds the 150 non-congregate beds. Low-to-moderate confidence.
What works elsewhere
- Culver CityCamping ban in 2023 opened alongside a safe sleeping site and 73 Homekey units; sheltered people rose from 38 to 164 and unsheltered fell from 51 in 2025 to 38 in 2026. Source: wavepublication.com
- San DiegoDowntown street count fell about 64% from May 2023 to June 2025 after the Unsafe Camping Ordinance and safe sleeping sites; the city auditor found citywide unsheltered homelessness did not fall. Source: sandiego.gov
- New York CityA legal right to shelter keeps about 3.5% of the homeless population unsheltered, against about 66% in LA County. Source: nyc.gov
- HoustonTotal homelessness fell about 63% since 2011 through one coordinated system, but unsheltered rose 15.8% in 2025 when pandemic money ended. Source: houstonpublicmedia.org
- San Antonio, Haven for HopeOne campus at $37.70 per bed night; downtown street count fell from 738 to 254 in year one (Haven's own figures), while the blocks next to the campus grew. Source: havenforhope.org
- Sacramento and FresnoEnforcement rose without matching beds; unsheltered counts rose in both. Source: calmatters.org
- AustinVoters passed a camping ban by 57.7% in 2021; a year later no arrests had been made. A ban without reporting changes little. Source: ballotpedia.org
Routes to a decision
| Route | Threshold | Deadline | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Online petition | None in law; persuasion only | Now, delivered Dec 8, 2026 | Live |
| Council discussion item (a ‘16-item’) from one councilmember | One sponsoring councilmember | Noon Monday, Nov 30, 2026 for the Dec 8 meeting | Sponsor being asked |
| County Measure A plan comment | None | Nov 20, 2026 | Open |
| City budget priorities and mid-year update | Council majority | February to March 2027; adoption June 2027 | Upcoming |
| Supervisor Horvath Board motion | 3 of 5 supervisors | Jan 31, 2027 (asked) | Upcoming |
| Initiative ordinance | 6,984 valid signatures (10% of 69,840 voters); plan 11,000 to 12,000 raw | 180 days after title and summary; filed only if council has not acted by March 31, 2027 | Held in reserve |
| State audit request through Assemblymember Zbur | One legislator files; JLAC approves | March 31, 2027 (asked) | Upcoming |
| Civil Grand Jury complaint | None | Any time | Optional, for a documented failure |
Timeline
- Oct 2026Petition launches; pledge sent to all 11 council candidates and the AD-51 and SD-24 candidates; records requests filed.
- Oct 19, 2026Registration deadline to vote by mail.
- Nov 3, 2026Election: three council seats, Assembly District 51, Senate District 24.
- Nov 20, 2026County Measure A plan comment closes (demand 9).
- Nov 30, 2026Noon deadline for the councilmember 16-item.
- Dec 8, 2026Petition delivered at City Council; 16-item heard.
- Dec 31, 2026Local homelessness emergency expires unless extended; bed targets go into the extension.
- Jan 2027City Attorney filing policy (Jan 15); police offer logging (Jan 1); reunification rules (Jan 31); Horvath motion (Jan 31).
- Feb 23, 2027Camping, doorway and reporting ordinances adopted; capacity plan to council.
- Mar 31, 2027If the council has not acted, file the initiative; state audit request due.
- Jun 30, 2027210 beds and spaces open; city budget adopted.
- Dec 31, 2027405 city beds and spaces plus 75 county treatment and locked beds.
- Jun 30, 2028480 city beds and spaces open.